Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists

Major congenital malformations

R analysis
id Study   Lib. in paper Exposition period    Study type  Control type 
 
Tags OR 95%CI x1/n1 x0/n0 no cases no exposed ROB Ref.
S18789
R79975
Broe (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 Major congenital malformations (exclusion of chromosomal abnormalities (ICD-10 codes Q90– Q99)) 1st trimester population based cohort retrospective unexposed (general population or NOS) excluded Adjustment: Yes GLP1-RA indication: Mixed (Diabetes and/or Overweight) or Unspecified 3.46 [1.56;7.66]
excluded (control group)
8/56   17,438/482,978 17,446 56
ref
S18790
R79978
Broe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025 Major congenital malformations (exclusion of chromosomal abnormalities (ICD-10 codes Q90– Q99)) 1st trimester population based cohort retrospective unexposed, sick Adjustment: Yes GLP1-RA indication: Mixed (Diabetes and/or Overweight) or Unspecified 0.73 [0.20;2.68] 8/56   9/53 17 56
ref
S18797
R80001
Chou, 2025 Major congenital malformations (MCMs) 1st trimester population based cohort retrospective exposed to other treatment, sick Adjustment: No GLP1-RA indication: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) 1.28 [0.05;31.69] C 0/68   1/260 1 68
ref
S18794
R79983
Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls exposed to insulin), 2025 Major malformations 1st trimester retrospective cohort exposed to other treatment, sick excluded Adjustment: No GLP1-RA indication: Mixed (Diabetes and/or Overweight) or Unspecified 0.64 [0.12;2.15]
excluded (control group)
3/32   76/547 79 32
ref
S18796
R79990
Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 Major malformations 1st trimester retrospective cohort unexposed (general population or NOS) Adjustment: No GLP1-RA indication: Mixed (Diabetes and/or Overweight) or Unspecified 1.24 [0.24;4.01] 3/32   7,985/103,843 7,988 32
ref
S18787
R79957
Cesta_Israel, 2024 Major congenital malformations (excluding fetal chromosomal abnormality) 1st trimester retrospective cohort (claims database) exposed to other treatment, sick Adjustment: No GLP1-RA indication: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) 2.16 [0.72;6.45] 3/20   31/447 34 20
ref
S18785
R79949
Cesta_Nordic, 2024 Major congenital malformations (excluding fetal chromosomal abnormality) 1st trimester population based cohort retrospective exposed to other treatment, sick Adjustment: No GLP1-RA indication: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) 0.59 [0.25;1.40] 5/110   245/3,164 250 110
ref
S18786
R79953
Cesta_USA, 2024 Major congenital malformations (excluding fetal chromosomal abnormality) 1st trimester retrospective cohort (claims database) exposed to other treatment, sick Adjustment: No GLP1-RA indication: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) 1.06 [0.70;1.61] 30/331   136/1,583 166 331
ref
S18768
R79855
Dao (Controls exposed to metformin/insulin), 2024 Major birth defects (excluding genetic or chromosomal anomalies and those associated with intrauterine infections) 1st trimester prospective cohort exposed to other treatment, sick excluded Adjustment: Yes GLP1-RA indication: Mixed (Diabetes and/or Overweight) or Unspecified 0.98 [0.16;5.82]
excluded (control group)
3/117   3/128 6 117
ref
S18806
R80011
Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024 Major birth defects (excluding genetic or chromosomal anomalies and those associated with intrauterine infections) 1st trimester prospective cohort unexposed, sick Adjustment: Yes GLP1-RA indication: Mixed (Diabetes and/or Overweight) or Unspecified 0.54 [0.11;2.75] 3/117   5/127 8 117
ref
Total 7 studies 1.00 [0.72;1.38] 8,464 734
x1: number of endpoints among exposed, n1: number of exposed; x0: number of endpoints among non exposed, n0: number of non exposed; C: calculated odds ratio from numbers of events and effectives

Forest plot

StudyTE95% CIn casesn exposedweightROBABCDEF Broe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025Broe, 2025 1 0.73[0.20; 2.68]17566%ROB confusion: seriousROB selection: moderateROB classification: criticalROB missing: lowROB mesure: moderateROB reporting: moderate Chou, 2025Chou, 2025 1.28[0.05; 31.69]1681%ROB confusion: criticalROB selection: moderateROB classification: criticalROB missing: lowROB mesure: criticalROB reporting: moderate Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025Kolding - Semaglutide, 2025 2 1.24[0.24; 4.01]7,988325%ROB confusion: criticalROB selection: lowROB classification: criticalROB missing: unclearROB mesure: moderateROB reporting: moderate Cesta_Israel, 2024Cesta_Israel, 2024 2.16[0.72; 6.45]34209%ROB confusion: criticalROB selection: moderateROB classification: criticalROB missing: unclearROB mesure: moderateROB reporting: moderate Cesta_Nordic, 2024Cesta_Nordic, 2024 0.59[0.25; 1.40]25011014%ROB confusion: criticalROB selection: moderateROB classification: criticalROB missing: unclearROB mesure: moderateROB reporting: moderate Cesta_USA, 2024Cesta_USA, 2024 1.06[0.70; 1.61]16633161%ROB confusion: criticalROB selection: moderateROB classification: criticalROB missing: unclearROB mesure: moderateROB reporting: moderate Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024Dao, 2024 3 0.54[0.11; 2.75]81174%ROB confusion: seriousROB selection: moderateROB classification: moderateROB missing: unclearROB mesure: criticalROB reporting: moderate Total (7 studies) I2 = 0% 1.00[0.72; 1.38]8,4647340.25.01.0ROB: A: confounding, B: selection, C: classification, D: missing, E: measurement, F: reportinglow,moderate,serious,critical,unclear,

1: Controls unexposed, sick; 2: Controls unexposed, general pop; 3: Controls unexposed, sick;

Sensitivity analysis

SubsetTE95% CIn casesn exposedkI2 Type of studies cohort studiescohort studies 1.00[0.72; 1.38]8,4647340%NABroe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025 Chou, 2025 Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 Cesta_Israel, 2024 Cesta_Nordic, 2024 Cesta_USA, 2024 Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024 7 case control studiescase control studies 0 Type of controls unexposed (disease free or unspecified)unexposed (disease free or unspecified) 1.24[0.30; 5.07]7,98832 -NAKolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 1 unexposed, sickunexposed, sick 0.65[0.24; 1.78]251730%NABroe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025 Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024 2 exposed to other treatment, sickexposed to other treatment, sick 1.04[0.68; 1.58]45152912%NAChou, 2025 Cesta_Israel, 2024 Cesta_Nordic, 2024 Cesta_USA, 2024 4 Tags Adjustment   - No  - No 1.05[0.74; 1.47]8,4395610%NAChou, 2025 Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 Cesta_Israel, 2024 Cesta_Nordic, 2024 Cesta_USA, 2024 5   - Yes  - Yes 0.65[0.24; 1.78]251730%NABroe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025 Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024 2 GLP1-RA indication   - Mixed (Diabetes and/or Overweight) ...  - Mixed (Diabetes and/or Overweight) or Unspecified 0.81[0.36; 1.84]8,0132050%NABroe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025 Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024 3   - Type 2 diabetes (T2D)  - Type 2 diabetes (T2D) 1.04[0.68; 1.58]45152912%NAChou, 2025 Cesta_Israel, 2024 Cesta_Nordic, 2024 Cesta_USA, 2024 4 All studiesAll studies 1.00[0.72; 1.38]8,4647340%NABroe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025 Chou, 2025 Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 Cesta_Israel, 2024 Cesta_Nordic, 2024 Cesta_USA, 2024 Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024 70.25.01.0

Publication bias and p-hacking diagnosis

funnel plot
0.0-3.93.91.9660.000Broe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025Chou, 2025Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025Cesta_Israel, 2024Cesta_Nordic, 2024Cesta_USA, 2024Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024

Asymetry test p-value = 0.8348 (by Egger's regression)

slope=0.0499 (0.2844); intercept=-0.1429 (0.6503); t=0.2197; p=0.8348

p values plot
0.01.00.01.0

Sub-groups analysis using all included studies

excluded 18768, 18789, 18794

Sub-groupsTE95% CIn casesn exposedkI2ROB type of controls unexposed controls (disease free or unspecified)unexposed controls (disease free or unspecified) 2.46[0.95; 6.34]25,4348835%NABroe (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 2 unexposed, sick controlsunexposed, sick controls 0.65[0.24; 1.78]251730%NABroe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025 Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024 2 exposed to other treatment, sick controlsexposed to other treatment, sick controls 1.01[0.72; 1.41]5366780%NAChou, 2025 Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls exposed to insulin), 2025 Cesta_Israel, 2024 Cesta_Nordic, 2024 Cesta_USA, 2024 Dao (Controls exposed to metformin/insulin), 2024 60.510.01.0

Umbrella review (other published meta-analyses)

Published MAControlPeriodTE95% CIn exposedkI2 Armstrong (Major birth defects)Armstrong (Major birth defects) 0.98[0.78; 1.23]0%-Wwhatever (meta-analysis)T11st trimesterstudies TTT-9 Armstrong (Major birth defects)Armstrong (Major birth defects) 0.97[0.77; 1.22]0%-Wwhatever (meta-analysis)Before-Any3 months (or more) before pregnancy or during pregnancystudies TTT-9 metaPregmetaPreg 1.00[0.72; 1.38]0%734----Broe (Controls unexposed, sick), 2025 Chou, 2025 Kolding - Semaglutide (Controls unexposed, general pop), 2025 Cesta_Israel, 2024 Cesta_Nordic, 2024 Cesta_USA, 2024 Dao (Controls unexposed, sick), 2024 70.510.01.0